McCain Throws His "Hail Mary" Pass

by Ron Giusti, Political Writer

John McCain, candidate of a currently unpopular Republican party, had been able to keep the presidential race surprisingly close.   Now in the final phase of the campaign he finds himself struggling desperately to stay competitive.

This summer, Barack Obama opened up a lead in the polls, after both Hillary’s endorsement and his strong convention speech unified what had been a badly divided Democratic party.  However, McCain’s surprise pick of the charismatic Sarah Palin as his Vice Presidential choice and her electrifying speech to the Republican convention combined to give McCain urgently needed “juice” at a critical point.  Independents and blue collar Reagan Democrats gave McCain another look as the key battleground states of the industrial Midwest moved away from Obama.     

Also, at this same period in early September, McCain had success in making Obama and his readiness for high office the main issue, rather than voters underlying worries about the economy and the war in Iraq.  Obama was ridiculed in McCain ads as little more than a vapid celebrity who had proposed legislation mandating the teaching of sex education to kindergarteners.   Meanwhile the candidate himself attacked Obama’s patriotism; “He would rather win an election then win the war in Iraq.”  As Palin energized rallies with the battle cry “Country First” Obama seemed to lose his footing, confused and unsure how to respond as his poll numbers dropped.

Then toward the middle of September, destiny decided to play a hand.  With the economy already weakening the sub-prime mortgage fiasco took down several of the nations bigger banks while the stock market began its sharp downward slide.   Things were looking a little too much like 1929, as the worried expressions of powerful people in both Washington and New York started to grab the attention of average voters in a big way.  Suddenly, the overriding issue for everyone had became economic survival. 

McCain, seeking to look like a man in charge, pledged to suspend his campaign, go to Washington and single-handedly get congress to pass Bush’s bail out package for the nation’s troubled banks.   This strategy blew up in his face when Congress stunned everyone by voting down the proposal the same day a frightened market tumbled 700 points.  Eventually, Congress approved the bail out plan.  However, during that process McCain had managed to look erratic and confused while the Commerce Department announced that another 160,000 jobs had disappeared.

It is a basic political rule that anytime voters are really worried about the economy the party holding the White House is held responsible.   As a result, Barack Obama has regained a significant lead in the polls.  And most importantly, it is a lead that is slowly growing.   Dangerously for McCain, Obama is currently leading in all of the states that John Kerry won in 2004, while those states now listed as toss ups are mostly places that have voted Republican in the past (these include Indiana, North Carolina, Florida, Virginia, Ohio and Colorado).  For John McCain and his party, the timing of the worst economic meltdown since 1929 could not have been worse.

However, in leading his campaign McCain has been like a good quarterback forced to command a team with no running game.  During a year when a majority of voters seem disillusioned with the Republican Party and crave change, McCain has kept the race close by throwing the long bomb when necessary.  His surprise pick of Governor Palin is a good example of how this tactic has worked for him.

McCain still has the instincts of the fighter pilot he once was.  And a good fighter pilot has to crave victory above all else and be ruthless in achieving it.  After eight years of Republican rule, McCain realizes that if he continues to let the race revolve around the issue of the economy he will lose the election.  Thus, McCain will try to bring the election back to the question of Barack Obama’s character.  

Sarah Palin fired the opening salvo of this effort when she told a rally in Carson Colorado:

“We see America as a force for good in this world.  We see America as a force for exceptionalism........Our opponents see America as imperfect enough to pal around with terrorists who would bomb their own country.”

Palin was referring to Obama’s connection with William Ayers who during the 70's was a founding member of the radical Weather Underground.  Obama was never that close to Ayers and has denounced his radical past.  Nonetheless, Palin has continued with this line of attack.  Later in Clearwater, Florida she said:

“This is not a man (Obama) who sees America the way you and I see America, as the greatest force for good in this world.  I’m afraid this is someone who sees America as imperfect enough to work with a former domestic terrorist who had targeted his own country.”

Earlier, before the economic crisis deepened, McCain had gained some ground by using his war hero status to paint Obama as less American than he.  Now McCain is attempting to have Palin and others portray Obama not as less American, but rather as un-American or even anti-American, as a strange, shadowy, mysterious man from a different culture with links to terrorists.  Now McCain asks darkly again and agin; “Who is Barack Obama?” while Palin repeatedly tells voters that; “Obama is not one of us.”              

In the coming weeks I’m sure we will also see McCain’s campaign gain more footage of Jeremiah Wright spouting his anti-American garbage, as the Rev’s rants fit well into the narrative they are attempting to build around Obama. A new McCain ad, titled “Dangerous,” calls Obama “dishonorable,” “dangerous” and “too risky for America.”  

Two things will determine the course of the campaign during its closing days.  Obama will struggle to keep the discussion and the national focus on the economic crisis, while McCain and his operatives try desperately to move the issue back to the question of Obama’s character.   McCain’s task will be difficult.  Sarah Palin launched her attack on Obama last Saturday.  The following Monday the stock market dropped 360 points, the day after that it dropped another 508 points.  Today as I write this column, the market dropped another 700 points.

What we are seeing is the “hail Mary” pass of the McCain campaign, their last desperate shot on which everything rides.  While Obama is very different in many ways from anyone we have ever elected president, I think the times are to grave for McCain’s last throw to connect.